New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS62 KMHX 250708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
208 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today, while a weak front moves south
through the region tonight. A warm front moves through Friday
evening with next chance for rain followed by a weak cold front.
An arctic cold front moves through Monday with a return to cold
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Christmas...

Key Messages...

- Small chances (15-25%) for light rain late Christmas Morning
  across northern NC

Increasing clouds this morning as a weak disturbance moves
across the NC/VA border and offshore. Forecast models have
backed off on the threat of light rain this morning across ENC,
but there remains a small chance for rain (15-25%) across
northern NC. Temperatures will be slow to rise in the morning
due to the clouds, but will jump up into the 60s to low 70s as
skies clear by noon and southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of
another quick-hitting front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Christmas...

Key Messages...

- Weak cold front moves through tonight and will bring a small
  chance (15-20%) of light rain again

- Cool and cloudy Friday with light rain arriving late

A weak cold front will push through ENC early tonight with very
small chances of light rain possible along it. Despite the
mostly cloudy skies overnight, lows should drop down into the
upper 30s to low 40s inland, and upper 40s along the coast.

Behind a cold front Friday brief CAD appears likely with high
pressure nosing in from the north. This will keep skies mostly
cloudy and temps from warming too much past the low to mid 50s.
Late in the day the front will return north as a warm front with
increasing chances (+30%) for rain possibly into Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Christmas...

Key Messages...

- Light rain possible Friday night as a warm front moves across
  northern NC

- Above normal conditions Saturday and Sunday with temps
  reaching the upper 60s to low 70s

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the
  area Sunday or early Monday with well below normal conditions
  returning through early next week

Rain chances continue to increase Friday night (40-60%) as a
warm front moves through ENC, but precip amounts will be light.
High pressure ridge rebuilds over the weekend with very warm and
dry conditions expected. Temps will climb to the upper 60s to
low 70s, though chillier conditions are expected along the OBX.

A strong cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday
or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the
Carolinas through early next week. Limited moisture will be
available with this front, and only scattered areas of light
rain expected as it moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12:25 AM Christmas Day...VFR flight cats are expected through
the period. The overnight hours will host scattered high clouds
and light to calm winds. As we get closer to sunrise, mid level
clouds will start to increase. Winds will veer from SE to WSW
through the day, peaking during the afternoon when winds will be
out of the SW around 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt (25-30 kt
for terminals along the coast). There`s also the potential for
LLWS of 40 kt at 20,000 ft from late morning to early afternoon.
Scattered -SHRA will be possible north of HWY 264 in the
afternoon as a warm front lifts north, but chances were too low
to include a mention in the TAFs at this time (15-20%). A cold
front will move through overnight and a BKN deck of low clouds
will develop after 00z, which will bring another 15-20% chance
of -SHRA and could introduce MVFR CIGs across the area.

Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR
conditions expected for much of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Christmas...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions will continue this afternoon over the
  coastal waters and Pamlico Sound after a brief lull this
  morning through tomorrow

- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this
  weekend and into early next week

Chaotic boating conditions expected in the short term as multiple
fronts cross area waters in quick succession through the holidays.

Winds this morning will be E/SE at 5-15 kts, but will quickly
strengthen this afternoon to SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-35
kts over the coastal waters. Winds shift to the north tomorrow
night at 15-25 kts before subsiding to NE 10-20 kts by Friday
morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft this morning, but will
increase to 5-8 ft this afternoon through Friday.

Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas
may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into
marine waters. Winds increase again Monday morning in advance
of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions
and possibly Gale conditions developing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SGK