New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS62 KMHX 142356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
656 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation moves out faster Thursday morning with decreased
rain and snow chances.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the waters from Duck
to Oregon Inlet and for the rivers and sounds from late tonight
through Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system passes offshore tonight with an Arctic
front pushing through early Thursday morning. Strong CAA behind
the front will bring wind chill values in the teens Thursday
night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday bringing
rain and wintry precip chances, with another surge of cold, dry
air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA
conditions possible again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A robust northern stream trough continues to dig into the
eastern CONUS today. Meanwhile, a weakening embedded shortwave
is lifting across the Southeast with low pressure beginning to
develop off the coast. Have seen periods of showers off the
coast this morning and beginning to see precip moving in from
the west this afternoon. While the returns are beginning to look
impressive on KMHX radar, have seen little sfc observations
reporting rain as of yet. The most impressive returns moving
into western sections are sampling the melting layer and actual
precip rates are likely much less. Best precip chances will
occur through the rest of the afternoon, then will taper off
west to east as the low passes off the coast as the low lifts NE
away from the area. Precip amounts continue to look limited,
mainly less than a tenth of an inch for most locations.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough tonight with
an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday
morning. Guidance continues to trend drier with the frontal
passage but cannot rule out a brief shower and maintained slight
chances pops as the front pushes through. Model soundings
indicate the column drying before sufficient cooling occurs to
see a chance over to rain/snow and now keep precip chances as
rain.

Temps tonight will remain in the 40s until the front pushes
through, then will see strong CAA develop after the frontal
passage with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s for highs during
the day Thursday. Thursday afternoon/evening dewpoints drop
quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits
inland during peak mixing. Mixing will also allow for gusty
conditions Thursday, 25-30 mph in the fcst.

Gusty winds continue into the evening hours Thursday night but
diminish late as high pressure builds in from the west
providing decent radiational cooling and wend below NBM for
lows, which are expected in the upper teens to lower 20s
inland and lower 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are
expected to drop into the mid teens late tonight which may
warrant a cold weather advisory early Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front and low
off the coast is expected to move through the region Sunday.
Models are trending towards a shortwave bringing rain and snow
chances to ENC, but considering it is 5 days out and there are
some models differences, confidence remains low. PoPs have
increased to around 30-40% with the latest guidance, even though
some 12z models keep the low farther offshore and conditions
drier across ENC.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with
additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region
keeping temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s
and lows in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest
inland spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue early this evening as band of rain
pushes offshore. The main front will cross overnight and could
see a brief drop again to MVFR cigs early Thu morning, along
with a below- mentionable risk (10% chance) of light rain
between 07-13z. Skies gradually clear through the day Thu, but
breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts to 20-25 kt
especially across the coastal plain.

Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in
VFR conditions from Thur afternoon through Sat. Monitoring Sun
now for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight
categories.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing SW winds gusting to 25 knots across gulf
stream waters, with around 15 knots or less across colder
waters and inland sounds/rivers. Seas 4-5 ft along the Gulf
Stream, 2-3 feet elsewhere.

SW winds will increase to 10-25 knots tonight as gradients
tighten between the low passing offshore and the approaching
cold front. Strongest winds will be over the Gulf Stream in pre-
frontal SW flow where gusts to around 30 kt will be possible.
Could see some gusts to around 25 kt after midnight across the
Pamlico Sound and waters north of Oregon Inlet. A cold front
will then push across the waters Thursday morning with strong
CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and expect
NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across all the waters.
Guidance continues favoring sub-Gale gusts with the NW surge
behind the front. Have issued a SCA for the remaining waters
for strong W to NW post frontal winds Thursday and Thursday
night.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly
building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves
through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...SK/RJ