New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS62 KMHX 191026
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
626 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into Eastern NC through the weekend with
dangerous heat and humidity. A wavy frontal boundary will bring
scattered to numerous thunderstorms into early next week. The
front will push through the area Monday, with high pressure
ridging in from the north through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
   localized flash flooding possible this afternoon into this
   evening.

 - Dangerous heat to impact the area today, with heat index
   values 105-110 degrees.

Latest analysis shows offshore high pressure extending over the
SE US, with weak frontal boundary meandering along the VA/NC
border, troughing inland and ridging aloft. Expect the front to
lift northward through the day as waves of low pressure develop
along it and mid level shortwave approaches from the west. The
combination should support another round of convection this
afternoon and evening. Though ongoing convection to the north
this morning could limit coverage today. A very moist and
unstable airmass continues to reside over eastern NC, with ML
CAPE values climbing to 2-3000+ j/kg this afternoon and PWATs of
2.2-2.5". Deep layer shear is meager (10-20kt), but similar to
yday. Boundary-parallel storm motions, high PWATs, and a deep
warm cloud layer will support very efficient rainfall processes,
which favors high rainfall rates and the potential for
flooding. Ensemble mean guidance suggests a widespread 1-3" of
rain focused again along the HWY 264 corridor. However, where
training convection occurs, rainfall amounts of 3-5" are
possible. Will hold off on Flood Watch at this time, though
there is potential for localized flash flooding, esp in areas
that saw a few inches yday. In addition to the flood threat,
similar to yday the airmass supports the threat for isolated svr
tstms, with wet microbursts being the main threat.

Dangerous heat is once again expected today, with highs
climbing into the 90s combined with dewpoints 75-80 degrees.
Expanded the Heat Advisory northward to cover the rest of the
forecast area, with heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Sat...Isolated svr tstm threat and localized flood
threat will continue into the first part of tonight, with
convection grad waning with loss of heating. Main area of
concern will still be areas across the northern tier. Overnight
lows similar to past several nights falling only into the mid
70s to around 80 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Highest rain chances Sunday through Monday

- Potential for hazardous heat continues this Sunday.

- Isolated diurnal storms possible Tuesday through Thursday

Sunday:
Frontal boundary shifts further north Sunday, decreasing
PoPs to chc (20-30%) as we lack significant forcing over the CWA. A
trough should set up over the coastal plain however, with afternoon
convection to our west moving towards our CWA in the evening hours.
It will be a race against daylight however, as convective inhibition
after sunset should decrease storm coverage and intensity,
eventually fizzling out altogether.

Monday:
Monday morning, cold front moves through the region, with
northerly flow and drier dewpoints behind it. This front should be
located along the southern half of the CWA Monday, with convection
really kicking off late morning/early afternoon along it. This makes
PoPs and QPF highest south of hwy 264. Should this cold front slow
down or stall over the region, flash flooding would be a concern. 20-
30kts of deep layer shear could also result in strong to severe
tstorms, with damaging wind the primary threat.

Tuesday-Friday:
Tuesday through Thursday subsidence aloft dries up
the mid and upper levels, bringing PoPs down as storm coverage along
boundaries is expected to be isolated and the sea breeze is pinned
to the coast. Dewpoints also drop to the upper 60s with
north/northeast flow, leading to a very pleasant couple of days over
ENC next week. Friday there is a lot of uncertainty in rain chances,
as it will be dependent on how the former back door cold front
stalls to our south and behaves through the week. Some long term
ensemble members try to form a weak low from this stalled boundary
that then heads towards the SE coast. However, at this point probs
of the low forming are less than 20%, but will be worth monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Sct TSRA risk this afternoon and evening

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Typical
convective forecast today, starting off dry but with convection
redeveloping along a stalled frontal boundary this afternoon and
posing a threat for all terminals through at least 00z.
Torrential rainfall and brief visibility restrictions are
possible in the strongest storms.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, bringing with it reduced vis and cigs
within thunderstorms. Tstorms could also bring frequent lightning,
torrential downpours, and gusty winds. There will be a fog and low
stratus threat at night as well with light to calm winds and moist
low levels through Monday morning, exacerbated by any areas that see
meaningful rainfall during the daytime. Highest rain chances in the
long term are Monday as a back door cold front moves through
bringing with it a wind shift from SW to N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sat...Latest obs show SE-SW winds 5-15 kt with
seas 2-3 ft. Weak cold front meandering near the VA/NC border
will lift back northward later this morning, with flow becoming
S-SW 5-15 kt (strongest south of Hatteras). SW flow may surge a
bit tonight to 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Similar to yday, sct
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today into the
first part of tonight. Stronger storms will have the potential
for gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Saturday... Sunday ridging weakens, allowing
SW`rly winds to remain at 10-15 kts. Monday morning a back door
cold front moves through, bringing behind it north/northeast
winds 10-20kt and showers/tstorms. As hi- res guidance is
becoming available, there is potential for brief gusty winds
greater than 25 kts to follow behind the back door cold front.
This will be worth monitoring over the next couple days. N/NE
flow continues through Tuesday before becoming more E Wednesday
and veering to become S/SW by Friday. Seas 2-4 ft expected
through Wednesday, with more uncertainty than normal beyond
Wednesday as we will have to see how the stalled boundary to our
south responds. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Monday before we see a drier stretch of weather
mid-week with decreasing rain chances.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ