New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS62 KMHX 112239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dropped SCA for the northern waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week
with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday
through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front is pushing south across the
area this afternoon and high pressure will build in from the
north tonight into Sunday. Temps will be around 5 degrees
cooler Sunday with easterly flow across the region, but still
above normal away from the coast. The high the migrates off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the week
while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a
significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record
breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the
upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday extending
into the weekend. Deterministic NBM looks reasonable when
compared to low-level thickness analysis, but this also sits at
or just below the 25th percentile of the probabilistic NBM.
Thus, there is some room for forecast temps to trend higher over
the coming days.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday
will make it across the area, but given the strength of the
ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling
before reaching ENC. Forecast highs for Friday and Saturday
have trended a couple degrees higher as more guidance shifts
towards this scenario. Record highs will be challenged most days
next week - see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely
through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast
through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought
(D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over
the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the
last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in
the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out
will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming
weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting
criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions
will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The
NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. A dry backdoor
cold front will continue to push south through the terminals
this evening, bringing variable winds and sct mid clouds. Sunday,
expect SCT high clouds and E-SE winds to 5-10 kt with gusts to
15 kt.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern taking shape next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Dropped SCA for the northern waters. A backdoor cold front will
continue to push southward through the southern waters this
evening. Latest obs show NE-SE winds mostly 5-15 kt. Seas
continue around 4-6 feet for the central waters. Easterly winds
5-15 kt will continue Sun with seas mostly 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week,
although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening
thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the
overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD